Hurricane Dorian

2 PM Advisory from the National Hurricane Center

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
200 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

...DORIAN BECOMES A HURRICANE NEAR ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...

...MULTIPLE OBSERVATIONS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN ST. THOMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 65.0W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM W OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch for the Dominican Republic has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to
12 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 65.0 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next day or two. On this track, Dorian
should continue to move near or over the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands this afternoon and then move over the open Atlantic well
east of the southeastern Bahamas.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Dorian is forecast to continue strengthening
during the next few days over the Atlantic waters.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) to the
north and east of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 80 miles (130 km) primarily to the east of the center.
An elevated weather station on Buck Island just south of St. Thomas
reported a sustained wind of 82 mph (132 km/h) and a gust of 111 mph
(178 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure from nearby observations is
997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations:
Northern Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches.
Eastern Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northwest
Bahamas...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches
Western Puerto Rico and the central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches
Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are ongoing over portions of the U.S.
Virgin Islands, and are expected over Vieques, Culebra, and the
British Virgin Islands today.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected in Puerto Rico this afternoon and tonight.
Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

SURF:   Swells are expected to increase later today across the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands and along the southern coasts of Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Avila

A map of storm shelters in Puerto Rico available ahead of #Dorian can be found at this link:

Shelter map

Puerto Rico News Digest For October 4, 2016

WEATHER SYSTEM COULD BECOME STORM

F
















From The National Hurricane Center:

"Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a low pressure area 
located about 500 miles northeast of Puerto Rico. Satellite wind data indicate 
that the low is producing winds to gale force, and the system could become su-
fficiently well organized to result in the formation of a tropical storm later today.  
The low is expected to move generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the 
next few days, and upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for 
development. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. Formation 
chance through 5 days...high...80 percent..."

BOARD SETS DEADLINE FOR TURNAROUND PLAN

From The San Juan Daily Star:

"Puerto Rico’s newly created federal oversight board on Friday set an Oct.14
deadline for the island’s governor to draft a fiscal turnaround plan, as protesters
at its first public meeting compared the board to “slavery” and said it was “pilla-
ging Puerto Rico.” The board asked Gov. Alejandro García Padilla to present a
plan laying out his vision for stabilizing Puerto Rico, which is grappling with $70
billion in debt, a 45 percent poverty rate and a decade-long recession..."

DONAHUE TO TESTIFY ABOUT BLACKOUT

From Caribbean Business:

"The Senate Committee on Energy and Water Resources has summoned the ch-
ief restructuring officer of the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (Prepa), Li-
sa Donahue, to appear Tuesday as part of the hearings that began last week to in-
vestigate the possible reasons that led to the collapse the electrical system on Sep-
tember 21 and the delay in the restoration of electrical service. The president of the
committee, Popular Democratic Party Sen. Ramón Luis Nieves, said that Donahue
should give details before the Senate panel about the work done by her firm, Alix
Partners, since it was hired by Prepa in September 2014 to restructure the utility’s
debt and transform the operations of the public corporation..."

CUSTOMS SEIZES $1.5M IN COUNTERFEIT GOODS

From News Is My Business:


"U.S. Customs and Border Protection San Juan Field Operations announced today
that 206 seizures where made of counterfeit products, valued at $1.5 million, wh-
ich were illegally imported into Puerto Rico via international mail. A wide range
of counterfeited products was seized during the enforcement effort, called “Oper-
ation Silver Snake 2,” to include: consumer products, apparel, footwear, textiles,
pharmaceuticals, and more, the agency said. Various international mail packages
inspected by CBP officers at the San Juan International Mail Branch revealed pro-
ducts that infringedintellectual property rights. The majority of the seized products
originated in China, the agency said..."

Puerto Rico News Digest For August 21, 2015

HURRICANE DANNY GETS TO PR TUESDAY

Hurricane Danny, now with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, is ex-
pected to reach the southern coast of Puerto Rico sometime early on Tues-
day. As of today's 5 AM advisory from the National Weather Service, Da-
nny is located at 13.7N 47.4W, about 985 miles east of the Leeward Islan-
ds. It is moving to the west/northwest at about 10 mph, and has a minim-
um central pressure of 987 mb. Danny is a small hurricane, with hurrica-
ne force winds extending outwards only about 10 miles from its center.
Some strengthening is expected today, but the storm will likely weaken
during Saturday. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect at
this time. Keep checking this blog and our Twitter feed for more on Hu-
rricane Danny.

11:00 AM UPDATE: Danny strengthens to 105 mph maximum sustai-
ned winds, becoming a Category 2 hurricane. It is still moving WNW at
10 mph, with more of a westerly turn expected on Saturday. Pressure has
dropped to 976 mb. Coordinates are 14.0N 48.2W, about 930 miles east
of the Leeward Islands. The next advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 5:00 PM.

2:00 PM UPDATE: Hurricane Hunter aircraft are reporting that Danny's
maximum sustained winds have increased to 115 mph, making this a
category 3 hurricane. The National Weather Service states: "No additio-
nal intensification is expected, as Danny is moving into an area of unfavo-
rable upper-level winds, and a weakening trend is expected to begin later
today.  Consequently, no adjustment to the forecast intensities from the
previous advisory is required". Current coordinates: 14.3N 48.6W, about
900 miles east of the Leeward Islands.

MORE TOWNS DROUGHT DISASTER AREAS

From NBC News:

On Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Thomas Vilsack declared
an additional six municipalities in Puerto Rico as natural disaster areas
due to worsening drought conditions. The municipalities affected include
Corozal, Morovis, Naranjito, Orocovis, Toa Alta, and Vega Alta. The ann-
ouncement comes in the wake of several other drought disaster declarati-
ons by Secretary Vilsack, bringing the total to 36 affected  municipali-
ties on the island.

TRIBUTE PAID TO FORMER SPEAKER JARABO

From Caribbean Business:

The House of Representatives paid tribute Thursday to José Ronaldo 

"Rony" Jarabo Álvarez for his work and political, cultural and social 

contribution to Puerto Rico. In celebrating the occasion of his 30th 

anniversary since presiding the chamber, an act was held in the Capi-

tol. It was attended by Gov. Alejandro García Padilla, former Gov. 

Rafael Hernández Colón, Senate President Eduardo Bhatia Gautier, 

Resident Commissioner Pedro Pierluisi and House Speaker Jaime Pe-

relló Borrás. The governor spoke of the body of work developed by 

the politician, who chaired the House from 1985 to 1992. The gover-

nor said the vision and optimism that characterizes the former House 

speaker is the same that inspires him "to seek unity, alliances and con-

vergence to meet the challenges the country faces today."

TODAY'S WATER RESERVOIR LEVELS

Click picture to enlarge.

Carraízo is at 33.90 meters, while La Plata stands at 34.69 meters.

Both reservoirs serve the San Juan metro area. Hurricane Danny is

expected to bring considerable rain with it early next week, which

may help boost reservoir levels. Users served by both Carraízo and

La Plata are currently under water rationing plans.

Tropical Storm Danny Taking Its Time

Tropical Storm Danny continues to slowly move west/northwestward
at about 10 mph, as of today's 5 AM advisory. Maximum sustained winds
are holding steady at 50 mph, with a barometric pressure of 1000 mb. The
storm was located at 12.2N 43.7W, about 1200 miles east of the Antilles.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the storm's structure has
improved over the last several hours, and is forecast to strengthen over
the next two to three days, after which it may see some weakening as it
encounters dry air in the eastern Caribbean. The center of Danny is expec-
ted to pass just south of Puerto Rico early on Tuesday, although no wat-
ches or warnings have been issued at this time. Keep checking the Puer-
to Rico Monitor (as well as our Twitter feed) for the latest on Tropical
Storm Danny.

The next advisory from the National Weather Service will be issued by
11:00 AM AST today.


11:00 AM UPDATE: Danny is now officially a hurricane. Maximum
sustained winds are now at 75 mph, pressure at 992 mb. Location is 12.5N
44.8W,  moving West/Northwest at a slightly faster 12 mph. Danny is now
about 1090 miles east of the Windward Islands. Hurricane-force winds on-
ly extend outward up to 10 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds  extend outward up to 60 miles.

Puerto Rico News Digest For August 19, 2015

DANNY HEADS FOR THE CARIBBEAN

The map above will update automatically throughout the day.

Tropical Depression 4 became Tropical Storm Danny overnight, and re-

gistered maximum sustained winds of 50 mph as of 5:00 AM today. The 

storm is headed straight for the Caribbean, moving west at 14 mph, and 

was located this morning at 11.3N 40.2W. Minimum central pressure was 

estimated at 1000 mb, or 29.53 inches. Danny, which is forecast to stren-

gthen over the warm Atlantic waters, is expected to be approaching Puer-

to Rico between Tuesday and Wednesday. By that time, Danny could have

become a hurricane. No watches or warnings have been issued as of yet.
Keep checking this page and our Twitter feed for the latest information
on Tropical Storm Danny.

11:00 AM AST UPDATE: Tropical Storm Danny located at 11.2N 41.1
W, 1385 miles east of the Antilles, sustained winds are still at 50 mph and
pressure at 1000 mb. The storm is moving to the west at 12 mph. Next
full advisory from the National Weather Service will be at 5PM AST.

5:00 PM AST UPDATE: Danny is now at 11.5N 42.0W, about 1325
miles east of the Antilles, and moving a little more slowly at 10mph,
still moving on a westward track. Maximum sustained winds are hold-
ing at 50 mph, pressure at 1000 mb. Danny could still become a hurri-
cane by Friday.

ROSELLO DECLARES 2016 CANDIDACY

Dr. Ricardo Rosselló, the 36-year-old youngest son of former Gover-

nor Pedro Rosselló, offered statements yesterday that indicate that

he will be seeking the nomination of the pro-statehood New Progre-

ssive Party for the governorship of Puerto Rico in 2016. The formal

announcement of his campaign will happen tomorrow at Roberto 

Clemente Colisseum. Rosselló has for months criticized the island's 

current leadership and their handling of the economic crisis. "We 

find ourselves before unprecedented challenges. We awaken to see 

that the current decisions are only aggravating the situation. We can 

follow the same path or we can look for a transformative and auda-

tious alternative. The actual political leadership thinks that that alter-

native is default, bankruptcy and taxes. I differ from that direction", 

said Rosselló. 

DOJ FUNDING LETTER CAUSES BACKLASH

From Caribbean Business:

A letter to Gov. Alejandro García Padilla, where the U.S. Department 

of Justice (DOJ) makes known that since Tuesday, Puerto Rico and 

agencies that administer federal funds received from DOJ programs 

have been classified as high-risk grantees has already generated public 

outcries. "The letter, sent Monday to La Fortaleza, notifies the gover-

nor that after an audit, the DOJ discovered numerous findings indica-

ting questionable costs and significant weaknesses in the management 

capabilities and internal controls in the administration of federal funds," 

said Miguel Hernández Vivoni, New Progressive Party candidate for 

resident commissioner.

GOV'T FISCAL PLAN TO BE IN THREE STAGES

From The San Juan Daily Star:

La Fortaleza Chief of Staff Víctor Suárez said Monday that the island 

government’s five-year fiscal plan, which is slated to be ready by Aug. 

30, will be divided into three stages. The plan is the basis for a negotia-

tion with Puerto Rico’s bondholders. The STAR learned that it will en-

tail proposals for economic development, labor reform and negotiating 

a moratorium of the debt. The first stage will take two years and con-

sists of the plan’s implementation. The second stage will entail measu-

ring the plan’s performance and changing it, and the third stage will in-

volve maintaining it. 

OFFICIAL: GDB LIQUIDITY AT $1 BILLION

From CNBC:

Liquidity at Puerto Rico's Government Development Bank (GDB) has 

risen to around $1 billion, the commonwealth's chief of staff said on 

Monday, after dwindling to $778 million as of the end of May.That 

was partly boosted by a deal to raise $400 million in Tax & Revenue 

Anticipation Notes (TRANs), a strict disbursement policy and depo-

sits made by public entities, the governor's chief of staff Victor Suarez 

told reporters.